By The Numbers – October 2016
It is too soon to say we’ve flipped to a Buyers’ Market from top-to-bottom, but based on what we cover below, it is safe to say buyers are in a better position now than at any other point in the last 4 years.
Overall, Manhattan continues on a solid footing, but has returned to a more balanced and deliberate market where valuation and condition dictate negotiability and speed of sale, rather than fear of loss or frenzy.
Listing supply for October is up 11.7% year-over-year versus 2015 to 5,146. As the market settles down from its recent frenzy, fewer new listings are being absorbed, so overall inventory is increasing.
Median price per square foot blended across all properties types and areas was $1,316, up 3.4% year-over-year versus 2015 and at a 7-year high. Further, median sales price was up 2.4% year-over-year to $1.077MM. When properties are selling, they are still selling at historically strong numbers.
Select neighborhoods and price-points remain seller-favored overall, as listing supply lags historical averages. On the Upper West Side, for example, listing supply is still hovering at a 9-year low, and is down 3.7% year-over-year. This dynamic is more acute in the entry and middle markets, in places like the UWS, West Village, Chelsea, TriBeCa, Flatiron and Gramercy, whereas luxury everywhere has lagged some given all the new product coming on-line since 2014.
Property is taking longer to sell, and is selling below ask much more often. Off-market inventory is up 64% over October 2015. Median days on market is 67, up 9.8% year-over-year. Only 17% of properties are selling over ask, down from 33.5% over ask in October 2015. Around half of properties listed are selling below ask, at a median discount of 2.2%.
The market remains at its strongest under $2,500,000, where move-in ready inventory in many areas remains low versus long-term averages, discounts off-ask remain slim and well-priced and/or well-renovated property continues to move.
Developers building down market into sub-$2,000/foot price points are seeing solid sales volume as the gap left after years of super-luxury development begins to fill. Developers targeting the luxury market have competition from ample active and shadow inventory, and in most cases are reconsidering product mix and offering deal concessions.